Energy Risk and Why Politics Need More Engineers

I learn that 8 out of the top 9 government officials in China are scientists. I make this assumption in good faith that Chinese leaders are not stupid, so this technological giant is poised well for growth. I ask if other nations can do the same and elect more engineers and scientists to occupy office. At least they could understand data.

For many decades since the dawn of the industrial revolution, the world has been enjoying a steady rise in per capita GDP, much of it due to new technology, most of it has to do with cheap energy. Cheap energy makes all things possible. It holds the key to upping quality of life. Its that simple.

However, we're now firmly in the age of huge unsustainable consumption patterns, growing resource pressures and the challenge of finding cheap energy. No explanations needed there. We've found ourselves in a potentially colossal mess and have to think of how to manage risk.

So far in my career that has spanned 4 years, I've been involved in the non-renewable energy industry. What did I do? I provided my skills to companies that manufactured products that either helped extract oil/gas out of the ground or run prime movers that utilized fossil fuels to run vehicles and power generation equipment. Was it fun? Yes, I took a few things home that I can call good experiences. But as a steward of society and going forward into increasingly challenging times with our energy issues, I wonder whether it is time to think about steering my career in other directions.

I've been thinking about this matter quite holistically for sometime, but in effect its like riding a see saw. Your career aspirations change with the tides of time and I'm just about thinking whether I need to stop see sawing and hop off and focus on something that brings a sort of existential element to engineering. Atleast now, I feel like things are clear to me over the horizon.

The GCC region in which I'm currently based as an engineer maybe enjoying its time of substantial oil/gas reserves but the key question is - are revenues from exports guaranteed? I look at data everyday that tells me again that the United States has growing shale gas reserves. It will continue to enjoy a period of cheap natural gas for as long as the economics of production allow it.

I've been in the United States for 10 years. Even the average Joe has ideas, good ideas. What I mean is collectively, they are an industrious nation with ideas; sooner or later I'm assuming they are going to figure out a way to tap oil and gas from new unconventional reserves for lesser cost and reduce their import expenditures from OPEC. What makes you think that it won't happen?

How many more years has OPEC got to continue underwriting the market for fossil fuels? 10? 15? Ofcourse, you can say OPEC will tap into nations that transform slowly over time into net energy importers but internal growth within the OPEC countries is seldom stable. Far from the truth, as these emerging nations are going to be some of the biggest consumers of fossil fuels in the coming years. Past data is a future predictor.

The people of GCC countries have enjoyed subsidized energy for a long time. Many public welfare programs are made possible through the enjoyment of energy import revenues. Infrastructure development has gone on at the speed of sound, metaphorically. 40 years ago, the UAE was desert. Now its arguably at the center of the global map. People really want to come here you know.

Suppose OPEC loses its stronghold on the floor price of oil and hypothetically crashes to market pressures, I'm eager to know what GCC countries will do next?

Fortunately, countries like the UAE are strategic in their thinking, looking to renewables like solar and wind power to balance out their energy portfolio. This is going on world over. China, EU, U.S, Spain, Netherlands you name it. They're all looking to ride this new but thin line of renewables to buffer for uncertainties and venture into new cleaner technologies that just makes plain sense for the future. I mean, one of the things that really surprised me was that the headquarters for the International Renewable Energy Agency is based nowhere else but in Abu Dhabi! How is that for vision?

Nations don't like uncertainty. They certainly don't like a hit on their GDP. The world is operating in a time of Arab Springs, Anonymous hackers and Occupy movements. Surely that in itself is an impetus to do seek change.

If crisis management was ignored and nations went with the business as usual scenario, how in the world would we meet the estimated 100 million barrels of liquids the world could consume each day in 2020 from a realistic supply capacity of around 100 million barrels a day by the same time-frame? Beats me. On the other hand, the conservation approach makes total sense. What-if scenarios modeled by McKinsey & Company for eight industries is shown above.

This is why I have an earnest wish that countries would elect more engineers and scientists to its top government jobs. These are the people who can understand the exponential functions of a rising population and energy demand. They'll be able to understand various technologies and their development challenges and view them in light of policies, subsidies, funding. Armed with technical knowledge, I hypothesize that these are the people best poised to advice their bosses or make better decisions at the negotiating table on world stage.  

Could Chechnya Get Democracy Soon?

The overwhelming development this morning was how a Chechnyan duo, allegedly the Boston marathon bombers, exchanged gunfire with police in a suburb of MA leading to the death of an officer and one of these "bombers". The city is literally under lock down and Friday is shrouded in fear and anxiety.

Perhaps the terrorists won.

While a huge search from door to door goes on in Watertown MA for an individual named Dzhokhar Tsarnaev (check out his social webpage), AP reported that the men were ID'd as originating from a place south of Chechnya called Dagestan. I hopelessly wondered, if not in bad taste, whether this meant Democracy will be brought to Chechnya soon. (Of course, until now, there is no hard evidence that links the Boston bombings to any particular extremist group). 

History has it that muslim geurilla fighters inflitrated into Chechnya , a region of predominantly Sufi background and disseminated the idea that a fight against their Russian overlords was also one of Muslim Jihadi concern. A poor nation with no strategic chance of defeating the Russians were bought through money, arms and training. 

During the first and second Chechnen wars, the Jihadi movement there, dominated by Ibn al-Khattab's IIB, was a dangerous security threat to the Russians. In September 1999, Chechnen rebels managed to get into Moscow and blow up several apartment buildings, killing almost 220 people. During the next several years, the Russians responded by an organized terror of sorts themselves, taking out many rebels and their leaders. The cycle of violence is pretty horrific. Neither civilian schoolchildren nor metro goers have been spared. 

One must be very interested to note that the leaders of these Jihadist movements are primarily of Arab descent, originating from places like Saudi Arabia and Jordan. They received training in Al-Qaeda camps, very likely in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and were then made to migrate to other nations to support Jihadi movements.

The following pictures show the leaders of the militant movement in Chechnya, most of them already dead. The few alive should seriously be considering new options to move operations to and new places they could hide. What the American military might be thinking is anyone's guess.

Ibn al Khattab (dead) : More Info 

Abu al Walid (dead) : More Info

Abu Hafs (dead) : More Info

Shamil Basayev (dead) : More Info

Dokka Usman (alive) : "Bin Laden" of Russia More Info

One wonders what the real motive for these Chechnen brothers were in bombing marathon runners and killing police offers in Boston. Is it because Americans have sided with Moscow in perpetrating violence against Jihadists in Chechna? Or are these two just some disgruntled kids with no ties to international terrorism who had intent to cause massive harm for something that happened to them? If it is, let's hope Chechans are not wrongly targeted and hate crimes are not committed.

We live in a world of two dangerous and polarizing movements. On one extreme is Western capitalistic  onslaught into dangerous territory to capture business interests in the name of democracy. We know for a fact that oil and natural resources are central to this viewpoint.  On the other hand is religious fundamentalists, increasingly upset with pro-western actions, seeking independence and revenge. 

I think and hope that most of us will continue to earn our livelihoods safely in the midst of these extremes. I seriously hope that open spectator international events such as running and cycling will take a serious look at the events in Boston and re-think their security strategy going forward. Who knows if the Tour de France is next?